Florida — Governor

Byron Donalds (R) vs David Jolly (D).

Called by the AP: Byron Donalds (R). Byron Donalds (R) 50.1%; David Jolly (D) 48.7%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean R. Public polls: 10.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 88%.