Arkansas 2

French Hill (R) vs Chris Jones (D).

Count in progress (86% of the expected vote): French Hill (R) 51.1%; Chris Jones (D) 48.9%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Likely R. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 90%.