Arizona 5

Mark Lamb (R) vs Elizabeth Lee (D).

Count in progress (69% of the expected vote): Elizabeth Lee (D) 52.3%; Mark Lamb (R) 47.7%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 98%.