Arizona 6

Juan Ciscomani (R) vs JoAnna Mendoza (D).

Count in progress (66% of the expected vote): JoAnna Mendoza (D) 57.5%; Juan Ciscomani (R) 40.6%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean D. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 15%.