Arizona 9

Paul Gosar (R) vs Dani Sterbinsky (D).

Count in progress (65% of the expected vote): Paul Gosar (R) 55.3%; Danielle Sterbinsky (D) 44.7%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 100%.