Florida 14

Mike Beltran (R) vs Kathy Castor (D).

Called by the AP: Kathy Castor (D). Kathy Castor (D) 51.2%; Mike Beltran (R) 45.9%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 2.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 36%.