Florida 22

Casey Askar (R) vs Pia Dandiya (D).

Called by the AP: Pia Dandiya (D). Pia Dandiya (D) 51.9%; Casey Askar (R) 48.1%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 2.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 45%.