Florida 27

María Elvira Salazar (R) vs Eliott Rodriguez (D).

Count in progress (99% of the expected vote): Maria Elvira Salazar (R) 50.3%; Eliott Rodriguez (D) 49.7%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean R. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 83%.