Florida 5

John Rutherford (R) vs Rachel Grage (D).

Called by the AP: John Rutherford (R). John Rutherford (R) 56.4%; Rachel Grage (D) 43.6%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 99%.