Iowa 3

Zach Nunn (R) vs Sarah Trone Garriott (D).

Count in progress (73% of the expected vote): Sarah Trone Garriott (D) 58.2%; Zach Nunn (R) 41.8%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean D. Public polls: 1.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 20%.