Iowa 4

Chris McGowan (R) vs David Dawson (D).

Count in progress (43% of the expected vote): Chris McGowan (R) 59.0%; Dave Dawson (D) 41.0%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 100%.