Kansas 4

Ron Estes (R) vs Katy Tyndell (D).

Count in progress (91% of the expected vote): Ron Estes (R) 52.9%; Katy Tyndell (D) 44.8%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 99%.