Michigan 10

Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) vs Christina Hines (D).

Count in progress (21% of the expected vote): Michael Bouchard (R) 48.9%; Christina Hines (D) 48.4%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 52%.