Michigan 2

John Moolenaar (R) vs Ben Ambrose (D).

Called by the AP: John Moolenaar (R). John Moolenaar (R) 63.3%; Ben Ambrose (D) 35.2%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 100%.