Michigan 8

Thomas Smith (R) vs Kristen McDonald Rivet (D).

Count in progress (16% of the expected vote): Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) 51.4%; Tom Smith (R) 46.4%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Likely D. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 2%.