Minnesota 1

Brad Finstad (R) vs Jake Johnson (D).

Count in progress (18% of the expected vote): Brad Finstad (R) 56.1%; Jake Johnson (D) 43.8%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean R. Public polls: 5.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 72%.