Missouri 4

Mark Alford (R) vs Jordan Herrera (D).

Called by the AP: Mark Alford (R). Mark Alford (R) 62.8%; Jordan Herrera (D) 34.3%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 100%.