North Carolina 11

Jennifer Balkcom (R) vs Jamie Ager (D).

Called by the AP: Jamie Ager (D). Jamie Ager (D) 57.1%; Jennifer Balkcom (R) 41.3%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean D. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 20%.