North Carolina 3

Greg Murphy (R) vs Raymond Smith Jr. (D).

Count in progress (91% of the expected vote): Greg Murphy (R) 50.3%; Raymond Smith (D) 48.4%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Likely R. Public polls: 1.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 88%.