New Jersey 3

Michael McGuire (R) vs Herb Conaway (D).

Called by the AP: Herb Conaway (D). Herb Conaway (D) 63.7%; Michael McGuire (R) 34.5%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid D. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 0%.