New York 17

Mike Lawler (R) vs Cait Conley (D).

Count in progress (53% of the expected vote): Cait Conley (D) 54.2%; Mike Lawler (R) 45.7%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 5.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 37%.