New York 24

Claudia Tenney (R) vs {{Party stripe|Working Families Party}}Alissa Ellman (D).

Count in progress (80% of the expected vote): Claudia Tenney (R) 59.4%; Alissa Ellman (D) 40.6%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 100%.