Ohio 15

Mike Carey (R) vs Don Leonard (D).

Called by the AP: Don Leonard (D). Don Leonard (D) 52.2%; Mike Carey (R) 45.0%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean R. Public polls: 4.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 68%.