Ohio 9

Derek Merrin (R) vs Marcy Kaptur (D).

Count in progress (47% of the expected vote): Derek Merrin (R) 59.3%; Marcy Kaptur (D) 40.7%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 31%.