Pennsylvania 16

Mike Kelly (R) vs Justin Wagner (D).

Count in progress (87% of the expected vote): Mike Kelly (R) 54.1%; Justin Wagner (D) 45.9%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 99%.