Texas 20

Edgardo Rafael Baez (R) vs Joaquin Castro (D).

Called by the AP: Joaquin Castro (D). Joaquin Castro (D) 79.0%; Edgardo Baez (R) 21.0%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid D. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 0%.