Texas 23

Brandon Herrera (R) vs Katy Padilla Stout (D).

Count in progress (64% of the expected vote): Katy Padilla Stout (D) 54.5%; Brandon Herrera (R) 42.1%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Lean R. Public polls: 2.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 78%.