Texas 28

Tano Tijerina (R) vs Henry Cuellar (D).

Count in progress (29% of the expected vote): Henry Cuellar (D) 64.2%; Tano Tijerina (R) 29.8%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Likely D. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 7%.