Texas 31

John Carter (R) vs Justin Early (D).

Count in progress (65% of the expected vote): Justin Early (D) 50.2%; John Carter (R) 48.5%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 99%.