Texas 32

Jace Yarbrough (R) vs Dan Barrios (D).

Count in progress (71% of the expected vote): Dan Barrios (D) 52.2%; Jace Yarbrough (R) 47.8%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 98%.