Texas 35

Carlos De La Cruz (R) vs Johnny Garcia (D).

Count in progress (67% of the expected vote): Johnny Garcia (D) 58.9%; Carlos De La Cruz (R) 41.1%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 4.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 46%.