Texas 37

Lauren Peña (R) vs Greg Casar (D).

Count in progress (71% of the expected vote): Greg Casar (D) 86.1%; Lauren Peña (R) 13.9%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid D. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 0%.