Texas 38

Jon Bonck (R) vs Melissa McDonough (D).

Count in progress (84% of the expected vote): Jon Bonck (R) 50.9%; Melissa McDonough (D) 48.1%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 99%.