Texas 4

Pat Fallon (R) vs Jason Pearce (D).

Count in progress (72% of the expected vote): Pat Fallon (R) 54.0%; Jason Pearce (D) 46.0%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 0.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 100%.