Virginia 5

John McGuire (R) vs Tom Perriello (D).

Count in progress (95% of the expected vote): John McGuire (R) 49.5%; Tom Perriello (D) 48.8%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Likely R. Public polls: 3.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 46%.