Washington 5

Michael Baumgartner (R) vs Carmela Conroy (D).

Count in progress (0% of the expected vote): . Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Solid R. Public polls: 1.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 93%.