Iowa — Senate

Ashley Hinson (R) vs Josh Turek (D).

Count in progress (56% of the expected vote): Josh Turek (D) 51.6%; Ashley Hinson (R) 45.4%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 8.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 60%.