Texas — Senate

Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D).

Count in progress (64% of the expected vote): James Talarico (D) 59.4%; Ken Paxton (R) 39.0%. Source: The Associated Press.

Cook: Toss Up. Public polls: 8.

Atlas pre-election model — built only from data frozen on October 29, 2026; first published November 3 after polls closed, so it is a test of the method, not a prediction. Republican chance in that model: 32%.