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TX-SEN · U.S. Senate · Texas

Texas Senate race 2026: Paxton vs. Talarico

General election, November 3, 2026 · U.S. Senate in Texas. Open in effect — Cornyn (R) lost renomination

On the ballot

Ken Paxton

Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D) vs. Ted Brown (L)

A Conservative Ledger profile for this contest has not been published yet.

The race at a glance

Board data as of . Ratings are the raters' own current calls; polls are the newest public ones with their field dates; money is what the committees reported. Nothing here is a forecast.

Seat
Open in effect — Cornyn (R) lost renomination
Primary
: Cornyn 910,382 (42.0%), Paxton 878,564 (40.5%), Hunt 293,250 (13.5%); runoff : Paxton 888,196 (63.8%) def. Cornyn 503,438 (Wikipedia/AP; SOS runoff totals not retrievable). D: Talarico 1,216,412 (52.4%) def. Crockett 1,071,900
Ratings
Cook Toss Up (); Sabato Toss-up (); IE Lean R ()
Newest public polling
SoCal Strategies Sep 12–13 n=649 LV: Talarico 50 / Paxton 45; InsiderAdvantage Sep 8–9 n=1,200 LV: Talarico 47 / Paxton 46; AARP (Fabrizio/Impact) Aug 30–Sep 1 n=895 LV: Talarico 48 / Paxton 44
Reported money
FEC : Paxton $9,248,699 raised / $1,755,783 COH; Talarico $68,555,930 / $21,548,155
Notable
Trump endorsed Paxton (filibuster commitment). No CFG general-election reservation found; Texas Tribune on GOP Senate super-PAC spending for Paxton does not mention CFG.
Campaign websiteskenpaxton.comjamestalarico.com

Questions and answers

Who is running for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026?

Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D) vs. Ted Brown (L) (as of Sep 15, 2026).

When is the election?

The general election is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How do the raters see this race?

Cook Toss Up (Aug 20); Sabato Toss-up (Aug 26); IE Lean R (Sep 3) (as of Sep 15, 2026).

What do the polls show?

SoCal Strategies Sep 12–13 n=649 LV: Talarico 50 / Paxton 45; InsiderAdvantage Sep 8–9 n=1,200 LV: Talarico 47 / Paxton 46; AARP (Fabrizio/Impact) Aug 30–Sep 1 n=895 LV: Talarico 48 / Paxton 44 (as of Sep 15, 2026).

How much money has been reported?

FEC Jun 30: Paxton $9,248,699 raised / $1,755,783 COH; Talarico $68,555,930 / $21,548,155 (as of Sep 15, 2026).